JERUSALEM — A small and nearly equal majority of Israelis and Palestinians back a two-state solution, a new poll shows, but the Palestinians’ support is rising.
Support among Israelis is at 53 percent, a decline of 2 percentage points since December, and at 52 percent among Palestinians both in the West Bank and Gaza, an increase of 8 points, according to the the Palestinian-Israeli Pulse: A Joint Poll published Monday.
Tel Aviv University’s Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah conducted the survey with funding from the European Union and the Netherlands Representative Office in Ramallah.
The poll was conducted in June and early July among representative samples of 1,200 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, and 900 Israelis, with an additional sample of Jewish settlers and Arab citizens. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent for both.
The survey tested the details of a permanent peace agreement, with incentives for those who are opposed; perceptions of the other; and alternate scenarios to the two-state solution, including both equal and unequal versions of one state, and a confederation of two states.
When presented with a peace agreement package based on previous rounds of negotiations – including a demilitarized Palestinian state and Israeli withdrawal to pre-June 1967 lines with land swaps; family unification in Israel of 100,000 Palestinian refugees; West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine, with the Old City divided among the two sides; and the end of the conflict and claims — overall Israeli support declined to 41 percent from 46 percent in December, with backing among Jewish Israelis falling to 32 percent from 41 percent. Palestinian support rose 4 percent to 43 percent, with much of the rise coming from Gazans.
Incentives offered to those who opposed the peace agreement package caused the total support to rise on both sides. Among the incentives offered was the release of all Palestinian prisoners, which caused Palestinian support to rise to 73 percent; Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, which spurred support among Jewish Israelis to rise to 58 percent; and changing educational textbooks on both sides to remove incitement, raising support by one-third on both sides.
Some 57.5 percent of all Palestinians and 58.3 percent of all Israelis opposed the idea of a confederation of a Palestinian state and the State of Israel in which citizens of each country could live on the territory of the other under their laws with security and the economy handled jointly by both countries.
A majority of Palestinians, or 52.3 percent, believe a two-state solution is no longer viable, and 43.9 percent of Israelis agree. In a separate question, 58 percent of Palestinians and 61. 4 of Israelis opposed one state for Palestinians and Israelis.
Some 47.2 percent of Israelis support or strongly support the evacuation of Jewish settlements under a peace agreement, with 44.8 percent opposing or strongly opposing such a move.
In a question on the perception of others, 39.6 percent of Palestinians said they agree or certainly agree with the statement “I feel fear toward Israeli Jews,” and 67.5 percent of Jewish Israelis agreed or certainly agreed with the statement “I feel fear toward Palestinians.” Some 53.3 percent of Palestinians said they disagree or certainly disagree with the statement “Most Israelis want peace,” and 62.2 percent of Israelis said they disagreed or certainly disagree with the statement “Most Palestinians want peace.”